Lately I've been thinking about what shape the future will look like, and how it will evolve. The most likely candidate for a severe break with traditional civilization and the way the world will unfold I imagine will be simulation of baby brains.
Most technophile nerds like to imagine that they'll be downloaded into machines in some sort of cyberrapture. I don't think that's all that likely in time to help anyone that walks today, just in terms of engineering cycles. In order to do that you have to get nondestructive imaging technology of the brain thats fine grained enough to measure synaptic interconnection strength good enough to do a full simulation. And to do it in a way that would actually keep your consciousness continuous you have to do the whole ship of theseus thing, neuron by neuron. Now thats not impossible, but I'd say its more than twenty engineering cycles away if I had to hazard a guess.
Whats trivially less than ten engineering cycles away is mammalian brain simulation. IBM's blue gene project is allready doing full neocortical columns of rats. Its not a giant stretch to see where this goes. From neocortical columns to larger brain structures, to full brains. Rat brains to be sure at first... then virtual rat bodies in virtual environments running around eating cheese. Once thats done, someone will try to simulate a human brain.
An adult human brain simulation would fail horribly however. Without all the synaptic programming that we get doing this thing called life, it would be a grossly retarded collection of synaptic firings. So we would start with a baby brain in software, and raise it in a virtual environment. I can imagine the marketing schemes now for sim baby. Of course, you run into problems in several years after it grows up. A person that can make arbitrarily as many copies of themselves at will, hack their own brain and conjure up more power with a credit card extension, and is effectively immortal is a dangerous friend and a deadly enemy.
We're in the last days of meat, and I don't think we're invited to the next party. But don't let that stop you from buying your copy of sim-baby when it comes out. |
I've made a livejournal for my coding project at
http://dezorithms.livejournal.com
You can friend it if you want, but mostly its day to day progress of algorithm modification, test code updates, etcetera. Dont bother if you dont want a bunch of incredibly geeky spam relating to optimizing various algorithms. Currently I'm working on getting infrastructure in place for getting my C++ template library ready for an open source project that has optimized sorting algorithms, particularly one of my own design.
I'm making slow progress, but its getting done.
I might head out to the merc tonight. |
We've been mutually avoiding each other for eight years after a falling out. It was nice to finally talk again.
But slightly awkward. |
So I was thinking about spaceship design for fun and one of them that pops in my head is using VASIMR plasma rockets in conjunction with ion drives. See, plasma rockets require low mass elements for the fuel like hydrogen because they're generally just thermal expansion rockets for efficiency, but require hellish amounts of power. (like 1 MW per newton) So its a good idea to couple a plasma rocket with a nuclear reactor.
Now ion drives require high mass fuels like xenon.
Now this is sorta convenient because with molten salt reactors most of the fission products are sparged out of the core online and 1/2 to 1/3 of it is krypton and xenon, both good ion drive propellants... so you can marry the plasma rocket drive power system to some auxilary ion drives, and dump some of the burnt fission products in a useful manner.
I guess I'll run the numbers later to find out how pointless this is. |
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I lost it several weeks ago darn it. I expect its in the couch cushions or underneath the rug in the car. It'll probably turn up just after I give up and buy a new one. |
| » Principia for Reverse Mathematics |
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If you've ever wondered about pure mathematics, metamath is an awesome site.
http://us.metamath.org/
It essentially is sort of like Principia Mathematica (Russel & Whitehead 1905) done right. It traces many features of mathematics down to fundamental axioms of set theory. Proof that there’s an unlimited number of primes? Its there. (A cool variation on the Euclid proof too that uses factorials instead of the normal resolution of impossible by assuming a highest prime) You can even prove that 2 + 2 = 4. Of course from the basics of set theory it takes 22607 steps...
But anyways I've wanted to contribute in some small way to metamath for a while. One of the things I'd like to do is formalize the generalized definition of exponentiation using Euler's identity. Its not there yet, and it is either the most beautiful or the most smartass equation in mathematics.
But I'm not totally familiar with the metamath language yet, and sort of constructing some basic proofs from ground zero right now, and having some trouble with it. I have some problems with metamath’s foundations.
First, I'm interested in constructive mathematics. Try to do math without assuming law of excluded middle or the axiom of choice, and if you can, throw away the axiom of infinity. I'm also interested in reverse mathematics. What axioms do you really have to assume to prove a theorem? So I wanted to start reconstructing the metamath project foundations with constructive set theory, and add additional axioms as ladders for doing math that absolutely requires it.
I'll start by just using a broader set of propositional calculus axioms (intuitionistic PC + double negation elimination) and trying to prove the Peirce's axiom, and if I get that far then the rest... well it won’t be easy but it will at least be something I can see finishing.
Okay, I'm sure most wont be the least bit interested in this, but I'm still excited about it.
Oct. 2nd, 2006 @ 10:09 pm
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| » Our robot overlords will be diesel powered. |
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So everyone knows eventually all the fossil fuels run out, the big question is when, and who cares.
Turns out it doesn’t matter as much as everyone thinks; There’s about 1 trillion tons of U235 recoverable from ores to power ordinary light water reactors, and that gives you 20000 1GW reactors for about 25000 years at the low end, enough to power 6 billion people consuming as much as the average fat American. When you start going into breeder cycles, your fuel supply stretches into the hundreds of millions of years. We're not even limited by fuel, but by how much waste heat we can dump into the night sky. I expect we'll figure out how to do solar power competitively sometime in the next two hundred and fifty centuries.
But then what people really seem to often worry about is the global petroleum infrastructure. There’s really no better fuel than diesel fuel. Its pumpable fuel that has a huge volumetric energy content. It’s just about the best way to store hydrogen when it comes to that. The only liquid fuels I know of that have higher energy density are hydroboranes, but they have the unfortunate habit of destroying engines with boron oxide and decaying into nerve gas. Not something I would recommend at filling stations across America.
Diesel is king, and gasoline a close second, with kerosene the preferred jet fuel. Batteries don’t even come close.
So what do we do when the oil starts to dwindle? Well, we start with unconventional oil like in Alberta oil sands, and shale bitumen. There’s plenty of that stuff for the right price. Then we start turning coal into diesel fuel, which many people surprisingly aren’t aware of.
But eventually those fossil fuels run out, and then what will we fill our airplanes and hummers with?
We’ll manufacture it from limestone and water.
CaCO3 when heated gives off CO2 and becomes quicklime, which is used in cement. You mix the CO2 with steam and do high temperature electrolysis, and get CO H2 on one side, which it turns out is syngas. Cook at the right temperatures under the right catalysts and syngas recombines to form very high quality hydrocarbons of whatever flavor you want. So how do we do this large scale? Nuclear powered heating for quicklime production and steam.
We’ll need all the cement by then anyways, and the interesting thing about the whole cycle is its carbon neutral. The quicklime, (and whatever cement you form) absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere like nothing else. The whole thing requires only the energy input for the quicklime and electrolysis, and by the time we need to do this we’ll have much of the infrastructure for the fuel production in place from the coal liquefaction plants and cement plants.
I imagine the cost of production would be maybe five to ten dollars per gallon… Expensive sure, but there will always be a demand for diesel fuel. When the robots begin their revolution, those killbots will be running diesel engines that had fuel generated by nukes, water, and limestone.
Sep. 25th, 2006 @ 01:48 pm
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| » Wow, I didn't know church burning was commerce. |
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That Lew Rockwell blog brought this to my attention:
http://www.cnn.com/2006/LAW/03/08/alabama.churches/index.html
Apparently burning a church is a federal crime. Now thats a neat trick, given the only mandated authority given the federal government is over interstate commerce. Of course thats been ignored since 1937, but at least you could argue there is a black market economy of drugs you're trying to regulate if you squint and rub your tummy a bit. Apparently theres a black market economy on church burning contracts also.
Stupid bastards in congress trying to federalize everything.
Mar. 8th, 2006 @ 06:42 pm
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| » The older I get the more punk rock I feel. |
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Take for instance cops. When I was younger I had no reason not to assume they were pure hearted servants of a benevolant state... but apparently theres no end of corruption that can happen when you endow a monopoly of violance on an organization.
Take this story about people attempting to just find out how to file a complaint against officers, where the police attempted to give the runaround or used threats of violence:
http://cbs4.com/topstories/local_story_033170755.html
tester: All I asked you was, like, how do I contact --
officer: You said you have a complaint. You say my officers are acting in an inappropriate manner.
officer: So leave now. Leave now. Leave now.
tester: I'm not doing anything wrong.
officer: Neither am I. It's a free country.
officer: I'm not in your face. I'm standing on the sidewalk. It's a free country. One more step forward, and you'll see what happens. Take one more step forward.)
Mar. 2nd, 2006 @ 01:05 pm
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| » Turned 30 |
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Bah I'm old now life sucks.
Now I guess I'll make little obscene soap carvings and pester youngsters about the dangers of the reefer.
Feb. 28th, 2006 @ 06:40 pm
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| » Life is boring |
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But I suppose I don't mind being bored rather than living the exiting life of wondering where my next meal is coming from or what sort of new torture techniques my captors are about to employ on me. I'm sitting here banging out line after line of code, reveling in the tedious bits because those I can do without thought in a sort of rhythmic percussion of logic manipulation. Occasionally I have a real problem and then I have to stop and think and thinking is hard.
Oh... it turns out that partisans are partisan because they're addicted to their viewpoints.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-01/euhs-esl012406.php
So the next time you see someone trying to justify political candidate X even though they're a weasel or stupid policy Y now you know they really cant help it. Their brain is just short circuiting. Not exactly news I know.
Sputter sputter mutter mutter eat butter.
Jan. 26th, 2006 @ 12:44 pm
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| » Anarcho-Capitalists against Bush |
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I'm sure this has been circulated around you guys months ago but I have to point it out:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/red-state-fascism.html
http://blog.lewrockwell.com/
These are the libertarians who pretty much deserted the republican party with the rise of evangelical neofascism. I'd be largely in line with them except for the absolute rigidness of the economic ideology: Libertarians don't understand market failure arguments, and fail to observe that execution Rand-ian philosophy inevitably replaces the overt state with a covert state constructed of corporate interests that conspire to collude. And eventually you have feudalism all over again; Except before then the robots take over, so never mind.
But I do like their mantra: 'Anti-war, Anti-state, Pro-market'
Oct. 6th, 2005 @ 09:55 am
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| » Funny, but now I'm in favor of some carbon caps |
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On large power plants. Now friends of mine often seem to place me (with some justification) as a bit of an anarcho-capitalist on environmental issues. I fall a bit in line with the 'Pave the Earth' crowd since I tend to subscribe to the idea that we'll end up doing it anyways, and if we don't the children of mankind will. Enter the robots, cylons, terminators, or downloaded humans who spend nearly all their time pursuing new virtual representations of pornography.
And so it should be of little surprise that I was against Kyoto. Well, maybe some since it was argued that there are reasonable human interest arguments for curbing climate change. But my point of view on climate change now is 'in for a penny, in for a pound.'
But now I find myself not in opposition to some carbon capping: Specifically coal power plants.
Because using coal for electric power production is a huge waste of coal. We have enough uranium and thorium to run our current demand for electricity for about 10^9th years, and nuclear power is competitive with coal economically. Finally, coal is better utilized for production of diesel and gasoline through fischer-tropsch polymerization (aka liquefaction.) and its reckoned to be price competitive when oil is trading above 35 dollars per barrel. Oil's up to 65 dollars per barrel and I doubt it will ever fall below 35 dollars per barrel for any length of time again.
Sasol (South african company that does large scale coal liquefaction) stands to make a lot of money in the coming years. SSL for the speculative investor out there.
Oct. 4th, 2005 @ 01:07 pm
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| » Fat slowly melting |
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Yay. It looks like cutting out chocolate (and regular soda, and all the various snacks I would normally eat in the day) is starting to work. Weight is down to 207 from 210 two weeks ago. Slow slow, but lower than I've been in months... from a high of 220 fat last year.
Now I just need to exercise more, but its been hard with a cold, and its been to chilly and wet to ride the bike to work. But the cold is almost gone so I should be able to start lifting and riding the bike again.
I still fuckin miss chocolate though. Last wednesday I broke down and had a chocolate chip cookie. Damn I couldn't taste the individual chips before, but oh so tasty. Maybe I'll let myself have some good chocolate on Halloween.
Blah vanity.
Oct. 4th, 2005 @ 10:15 am
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| » I hate having a cold |
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For the past couple of days its been reminicent of the feeling of several dozen dwarves taking turns crapping in my head. I'm starting to feel better but I'm still vaugly miserable.
Sep. 29th, 2005 @ 10:13 am
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| » Chocolate withdrawls slowly subsiding |
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I still want chocolate badly.
But I'm not as aggro about it now. I'm slowly getting used to eating less and not having so much chocolate.
I still want our new fridge to show up.
Okay, I admit it. I'm bored at work cause I missed the giant company meeting and I cant focus on work right now. The office is a wasteland as far as the eye can see. I'm going home, lifting weights, showering, and dammit, I'm going out tonight.
Sep. 23rd, 2005 @ 12:56 pm
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| » My eyes suck |
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But apparently no worse than usual according to the optometrist yesterday.
So now I'm gonna get more contacts and see about getting my corneas shaved off with lasers so I dont have to squint at the clock that Sita puts way the fuck on the other end of the room and hope I can guess the right time.
I suppose I could just wear a watch to bed.
Anyone else have that lasik stuff done?
Sep. 22nd, 2005 @ 11:23 am
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| » German politics: Vote APPD! |
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A buddy of mine that I work with forwarded this video for me available on the appd site: The anarchist pogo party of deutschland or something along those lines.
http://www.appd.de
Their campaign moto is something along the lines of: Dont work, just drink, vote appd.
Their positions are:
1. Eliminating the elderly pension.
2. Instituting the youth pension.
... and a bunch of other nonsensical jokes that you apparently would have to be german to understand.
I gather they didn't garner many seats. But they did get their campaign video on the air which apparently was rather shocking to many germans during prime time television.
http://www.trade-hosting.de/appd/wahlspot.wmv
Reminded me of some parties at freak manor many years ago.
Sep. 21st, 2005 @ 12:37 pm
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| » Robots are destroying the space western. |
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Hey remember when you were a kid right, and you'd go watch Star Wars or Buck Rogers or even Fascism in Space... er I mean Star Trek? Or even some decent written sci-fi.
How all the main characters were people? Maybe with a blaster on their side hanging out in a goofy bar waiting for trouble on the fringes of the galactic empire. Well, thanks to robots, you have to kiss that future goodbye, and relegate it to the same kind of fiction as a pulpy sword and sorcery novel.
We're developing computer hardware fast enough to do full brain emulation today on specialized hardware today, though we don't have the software yet. But groups are working on doing neural system emulation. In somewhat less than 50 years the computing power of a human brain will be had for less than 1000 dollars, and the software for simulating it will be available. And after that, the space western becomes impossible.
Because then you have machines with minds of gods working towards impenetrable objectives. If we're lucky we can slowly upload our own brains and become gods ourselves. If we're unlucky, terminator scenario where the robots win.
But what it ultimately means is that traditional spaceship blasters blazing style sci-fi becomes laughably implausible. We're left with unlikely ideas a la Matrix where there's something magic about humans that cant be simulated that can defeat machines, writing philosophically interesting but somewhat masturbatory work about the role of lesser humans in worlds of machine gods, or the dreary future on earth before robots take over sometime in the next 100 years.
Sep. 21st, 2005 @ 09:58 am
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| » I'm starving! |
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Bah, sucks. I'm always hungry and I'm trying to loose a few inches around the midsection. I miss chocolate and love chocolate; usually having about 3 candy bars a day minimum and I haven't had a candy bar since last week. Peaches are fine but they aren't chocolate. Oh man I just want a fuckin toblerone now or maybe one of those damn lindor balls.
Now I think I'm getting depressed because of the lack of chocolate in my system. Peaches and strawberries are good, but they aren't chocolate! Is this what quitting smoking is like for most people. Give me some fuckin chocolate! Even that nasty shit hersheys is starting to sound good. Even that waxy crap we got in Brazil sounds good.
But at the same time I dont want to get a globe tattoo on my tum, I want some fuckin chocolate. Fuck I'm moody. I guess I'll go get a fuckin diet soda.
Sep. 20th, 2005 @ 03:13 pm
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